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Notes on AI, management, and processes

Implementation experience, first-hand: what works, what doesn't, and why.

Management

129 Hours Against 49: Anatomy of an Effort Estimation Error

We estimated a project at 49 hours and spent 129. The estimation error is almost never about hours — it is about undeclared scope creep and anchoring.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Minus 78% Time, Minus 95% Errors: An Agentic Process a Decade Before LLMs

In 2016 we automated proposal generation and got results companies now expect from AI. Here is what actually drove that outcome — and it wasn't the writing.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

System of Record: Why Results Outside It Don't Exist for Your Company

Work that never reaches your system of record doesn't exist for the business. What error data on spreadsheets and data quality reveal, and how to fix it.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Process Observability: What You Should See a Month After Launch

A month after launch, if you can't pull up numbers on completed scenarios and failures, you launched a demo. Here are the three numbers that matter, and why.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

The Last Mile of Adoption: Where Projects Die on the Way to the Desk

Digitization projects rarely fail on architecture — they fail in the final ten percent of the path to the user. A breakdown of adoption mechanics and how to measure it.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Digitisation Is Not Automation: Why a Project Clears Acceptance and Delivers No Effect

If no process rule changed, a project reports interface coverage instead of time saved. The warning signs to check for, backed by healthcare workload data.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Rules Before Model: How to Choose Between Automation and AI

Some tasks companies buy language models for are better solved with rules — cheaper and more predictable. Here's where that line falls and who owns the error.

August 15, 2026
Management

A Statement of Work Earns Its Value From What It Excludes

A statement of work manages expectations, not the build itself. The out-of-scope list beats a solution description, backed by real requirements volatility data.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

How to Calculate the ROI of an AI Use Case Before Launch, Not After

Calculating by hours saved almost always overstates the effect. The proper method: count eliminated operations and the failure rate, step by step.

August 15, 2026
Management

Resistance to Change Is Data: Where It Actually Comes From

Resistance concentrates wherever a system takes control away from people, not workload. What change management should read from it, and why the term misleads.

August 15, 2026
Management

Effort Estimation as a Process Stage, Not a Line in a Negotiation

An estimation stage needs a defined input, an owner, a documented output, and a re-estimation trigger. The data show how question format changes outcomes.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Events Beat Reports: Why a Process You Only See in Reporting Is Already Out of Control

A deviation that reaches a weekly report is already too late to fix. How events differ from metrics, and how to move a process onto event-driven management.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

What Minus 78% Is Made Of: Decomposing the Automation Effect

An aggregate effect number can't be attributed to one change. How to decompose a result into assembly, delivery and events — and why skipping this makes it unrepeatable.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Process Defects With No Observer: Why They Survive for Years

The costliest process defects skip every internal report — only the client sees them, and stays silent instead of complaining. How to assign an observer.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Why You Fix the Process Before the System Rollout, Not Alongside It

Rolling out ERP or CRM on top of an unfixed process locks the mess into the configuration. A breakdown of three rollouts: what to settle before the project starts.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Why AI Pilots Fail: The Failure Is Built Into the Format

A pilot has no process owner, no system of record integration, and no deadline to sunset the old way. That design, not the model, decides the outcome.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

A 50–90% Cut in Cycle Time: Why the Robotics Effect Varies So Widely

A results range this wide isn't measurement error — it depends on whether the automated step was the line's bottleneck. The mechanics and global robotics data.

August 15, 2026
Management

Distributed Teams: What Breaks First Isn't the Connection — It's the Shared Definition of Done

In a team split across sites, it isn't communication that breaks — it's the shared definition of done. Data and analysis on distributed team readiness.

August 15, 2026
Management

Process Length as a Metric: Why Seven Steps Work and Twenty Don't

What can't be recalled in full doesn't get followed. Why process length is a measurable predictor of compliance, and how to shorten it without losing content.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

Counterparty Monitoring: A Screening Loop Without a Recipient Changes No Decisions

A monitoring loop's value comes not from the check but from routing results to the decision maker. A breakdown of the loop and payment-discipline data.

August 15, 2026
AI implementation

A Mandatory Field Costs Less Than Inspecting Its Output: The Forcing-Function Math

Banning an incomplete result costs less than downstream inspection by an order of magnitude. The math, the data on record quality, and where the method breaks.

August 15, 2026
Management

The Cost Estimate as a Risk Model: Why Bids for the Same Job Differ by Multiples

The spread between bids isn't about job complexity — it's about how much uncertainty a vendor accepts. A look at the data behind estimate accuracy by class.

August 15, 2026
Management

How to Measure Tool Adoption: Why the Active User Count Lies

Active users is a metric that grows from curiosity alone. Real adoption is measured by the completed scenario rate — here's how to calculate it in practice.

August 15, 2026
Management

A Champion Network Beats Training: Who Colleagues Actually Ask

Adoption spreads through the people colleagues turn to informally, not a training schedule. Here's the mechanics, plus data on opinion leaders' measured impact.

August 15, 2026
Business in Russia

Exiting a Business: The Sequence of Handing Over Processes Matters More Than the Sequence of Selling Assets

An exit is planned around the sequence of handing over processes, not selling assets. A breakdown of the mechanics from two of my own exits in eleven months.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

China: Regulation as a Design Constraint, Not Background Noise

A foreign partner in China pays for fitting the structure, not for market access. The mechanics: negative list, data transfer thresholds and investment statistics.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

China Deal Structure: Why Exit Terms Must Be Negotiated at Signing

Exit terms for a China joint venture get negotiated at deal structuring or never at all. A practical look at arbitration, FX procedure, and deal timelines.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

Uzbekistan: What a Business Incubator Actually Delivers for Market Entry

A business incubator in an emerging market delivers access to decision makers, not funding. A delegation leader's account, plus current investment data.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

UAE Free Zones: What Actually Sets Your Entry Timeline and Cost

A free zone competes on registration speed and licence cost, not on when your business starts operating. Procedures, tax rules and official statistics reviewed.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

India: Contractor Rate Savings and the Cost of Coordination

Rate savings pay off only when you have your own requirements owner on your side. A breakdown of the mechanics and the measured cost of cross-site coordination.

August 15, 2026
Perspectives

Why this blog

The first post: why I'm starting a blog, and what it will cover.

August 8, 2026